Policy Research Supporting Policy Making: The CIDE-CRE Agreement

This paper presents a case study of regulation of natural gas pricing in Mexico as a case of “successful” policy research. Studies done under an academic agreement between the Comisión Reguladora de Energía (CRE) and the Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas (CIDE) in Mexico City have analyzed the welfare efficiency implications of the netback rule based on the Houston gas price that is used to set the domestic gas price. This rule results from a well structured welfare maximization general model. However, in practice the netback rule has been debated during several North American price spikes. Policy makers relied on CIDE studies to keep the netback rule. This case study examines how and why policy makers did so. The debate within the Mexican government is analyzed, and the actors involved in the policy discussions are described, as well as the relationships between CIDE and CRE that were developed, and that helped in the communication with policymakers. The methods of dissemination of research are also discussed.natural gas; price regulation; benchmarking; policiy research; Mexico

Different Approaches to Supply Adequacy in Electricity Markets

This paper studies the electricity market design long run problem of ensuring enough generation capacity to meet future demand (resource adequacy). Reform processes worldwide have shown that it is difficult for the market alone to provide incentives to attract enough investment in capacity reserves due to technical and institutional features. We study several measures that have been proposed internationally to cope with this problem including strategic reserves, capacity payments, capacity requirements, and call options. The analytical and practical strengths and weaknesses of each approach are discussed .Supply adequacy, electricity markets

Designing natural gas distribution concessions in a megacity: tradeoffs beetween scale economies and information disclosure in Mexico City

In 1995 the Mexican government initiated structural reform of the natural gas sector-reform that permitted private investment in transportation, storage, distribution, trade and marketing while maintaining a State monopoly in production. It prepared a detailed regulatory framework to implement the sector liberalization, including an element to develop distribution systems through concessions in specific geographic areas. The concessions are bid and the winner is permitted physical exclusivity for 12 years in gas distribution but not in gas marketing. In each concession award process a distribution geographical area is defined and minimum consumer coverage targets are established. Bidders present technical and financial proposals, including a market demand study. The winning proposal must be technically sound and offer the lowest average revenue for the first five-year period. Densely populated geographic areas pose a problem for exclusivity in distribution. If the concession is granted to a single firm, scale economies might be very attractive, but regulating a mega-monopoly would be difficult. If the distribution area is subdivided, economies of scale decrease while information for comparative regulation increases. These and such elements as technical characteristicsof the geographic area and potential for competition in related services were considered when designing natural gas distribution franchises for the Mexico City Metropolitan Area.Business Environment,Economic Theory&Research,Markets and Market Access,Consumption,Environmental Economics&Policies,Consumption,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Access to Markets,Markets and Market Access

Regulatory reform in Mexico's natural gas industry : liberalization in the context of a dominant upstream incumbent

The natural gas industry combines activities with natural monopoly characterisitics with those that are potentially competitive. Pipeline transport and distribution, which have natural monopoly characterisitcs, require regulation of price and non-price behavior. Production is a contestable activity, but in a few countries (including Mexico) it remains a state monopoly. Gas marketing is also contestable, but the presence of a dominant, upstream, vertically integrated incumbent may pose significant barriers to entry. Market architecture decisions--such as horizontal structure, regional development, and the degree of vertical integration--are also crucial. The authors report that Mexico has undertaken structural reform in the energy sector more slowly than many other countries,but it has introduced changes to attract private investment in natural gas transport and distribution. These changes were a response to the rapid growth in demand for natural gas (about 10 percent a year) in Mexico, which was in turn a response to economic development and the enforcement of environmental regulations. The new regulatory framework provides incentives for firms to invest and operate efficiently and to bear much much of the risk associated with new projects. It also protects captive consumers and improves general economic welfare. The continued vertical integration of the state-owned company Pemex and its statutory monopoly in domestic production posed a challenge to regulators. Their response in liberalizing trade, setting first-hand sales prices, and regulating natural gas distribution makes the Mexican case an interesting example of regulatory design. As the first phase of investment mobilization and competition for the market in Mexican distribution project concludes, remaining challenges include consistently and transparently enforcing regulations, coordinating tasks among government agencies, and ensuring expansion of gas transport services and domestic production. A key challenge in the near term will be fostering competition in the market. In strengthening the role of market forces, one issue is Pemex's discretionary discounts on domestic gas and access to transport services, made possible by its monopoly in domestic production and marketing activities and its overwhelming dominance in transport. The main instrument available to the regulator is proscribing Pemex contract pricing, but more durable and tractable instruments should be considered.Water and Industry,Oil Refining&Gas Industry,Energy and Environment,Oil&Gas,Carbon Policy and Trading

The Political Economy of Solar Energy

At the present time, solar power is not a competitive fuel for supplying electricity to the grid in the United States. However, an economic model developed by the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) forecasts that solar power production costs could drop twenty percent every time output doubles. Commercial demand for solar cells in the United States has been increasing at a rate of twenty-five percent a year. Such cost projections, if accurate, imply that solar power could be a competitive source of power to the U.S. grid by 2010. Eventually, technical progress and falling production costs will render solar power an important source of energy in the future. As technology improves, it may be possible to supply a substantial part of the nation with solar power from sites in the Southwest of the United States and Mexico. Scientists believe that the cost of solar power will drop to the neighborhood of two cents a kilowatt-hour or perhaps even one cent per kilowatt-hour. If there is enough foresight to develop the technology, then solar-derived hydrogen could become a competitive feedstock in petrochemicals. However, if there is no leadership from government, this process of change could take fifty years. With proper leadership, it could be realized in less than ten to fifteen years.Solar energy, photovoltaics, learning by doing, political economy.

LNG in the Northwestern Coast of Mexico: Impact on Prices of Natural Gas in Both Sides of the US-Mexico Border

This paper studies the possible impacts of LNG projects on natural gas prices in both sides of the US-Mexico border in California. In California, gas prices are high and the demand is expected to grow. Several projects of LNG facilities have been proposed and have to cope with public opinions against them. In Baja California, four LNG projects are under development given the rising demand forecasted for the next years. After a detailed study of the opportunity for LNG projects, we conclude with an analysis of the fundamentals of the current and future price formation in both sides of the US Mexico border.Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), price formation, LNG projects, Mexico-US border, natural gas market

Different Approaches to Supply Adequacy in Electricity Markets

This paper studies the electricity market design long run problem of ensuring enough generation capacity to meet future demand (resource adequacy). Reform processes worldwide have shown that it is difficult for the market alone to provide incentives to attract enough investment in capacity reserves due to technical and institutional features. We study several measures that have been proposed internationally to cope with this problem including strategic reserves, capacity payments, capacity requirements, and call options. The analytical and practical strengths and weaknesses of each approach are discussed

Optimal Transmission Tariff Regulation for the Southern Baja-Californian Electricity Network System

The tariff imposed over the use of electricity transmission networks is one critical factor to achieve efficiency in electricity markets. In Mexico, the current transmission network tariffs are based on long run marginal costs. We propose an incentive price-cap mechanism and apply it to the meshed network system in the isolated electricity system of Southern Baja California, Mexico. We further compare the current transmission tariffs set by the Mexican regulator (CRE) with the tariffs resulting from our regulatory scheme. We show that our mechanism prices the network at tariffs rendering superior welfare compared to the tariffs determined by Mexican authorities

El modelo HRV para expansión óptima de redes de transmisión: una aplicación a la red eléctrica de Ontario

This paper presents an application of a mechanism that provides incentives to promote transmission network expansion in the electricity system of the Ontario province. Such a mechanism combines a merchant approach with a regulatory approach. It is based on the rebalancing of a two-part tariff within the framework of a wholesale electricity market with nodal pricing. The expansion of the network is carried out through auctions of financial transmission rights for congested links. The mechanism is tested for a simplified transmission grid with ten interconnected zones, ten nodes, eleven lines and seventy eight generators in the Ontario province. The simulation is carried out for both peak and non-peak scenarios. Considering Laspeyres weights, the results show that that prices converge to the marginal cost of generation, the congestion rent decreases, and the total social welfare increases

Policy Research Supporting Policy Making: The CIDE-CRE Agreement

This paper presents a case study of regulation of natural gas pricing in Mexico as a case of “successful” policy research. Studies done under an academic agreement between the Comisión Reguladora de Energía (CRE) and the Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas (CIDE) in Mexico City have analyzed the welfare efficiency implications of the netback rule based on the Houston gas price that is used to set the domestic gas price. This rule results from a well structured welfare maximization general model. However, in practice the netback rule has been debated during several North American price spikes. Policy makers relied on CIDE studies to keep the netback rule. This case study examines how and why policy makers did so. The debate within the Mexican government is analyzed, and the actors involved in the policy discussions are described, as well as the relationships between CIDE and CRE that were developed, and that helped in the communication with policymakers. The methods of dissemination of research are also discussed